Officials on the Pacific Asia Travel Association and the Hong Kong Polytechnic University School of Hotel & Tourism Management released their joint publication, the Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2013-2017.
The new forecasts at the complete visitor economy will make it easier for tourism organisations to anticipate demand trends and manage supply.
The annual and quarterly forecasts cover a five-year horizon and include price elasticity variables for many of the destinations covered.
High-level snapshots from the forecasts show that visitor arrivals to the Asia Pacific region will keep growing with a median annual growth rate of four.1 per cent over the period 2013-2017 and reach 581 million by 2017.
At an identical time, north-east Asia will maintain a dominant position within the inbound market of Asia Pacific, and its market share will reach 53 per cent by 2017./
China will remain the pinnacle inbound destination within the Asia Pacific, peaking at 147.4 million visitors in 2017.
Visitor arrivals to the Asia Pacific from China will exceed 100 million by 2015
Cambodia, the Maldives, Chinese Taipei, Bhutan and Mongolia are the head five fastest growing destinations when it comes to visitor arrivals over the period 2013-2017.
Taken together these projections provide essential information for tourism planners and operators alike.
The forecasts aim to aid destinations set strategy for the arrival years by supporting the entire visitor economy in both long-term decision and policy making by predicting arrivals, tourism receipts and departures consistent with country/region of origins for 41 destinations.
“I am delighted to recommend these next generation forecasts to PATA members and colleagues. The scope and quality of the forecasts will add value to our a variety of members across 17 time zones and plenty of different functional groups,” said Martin J Craigs, PATA chief executive.
Published annually with a quarterly breakdown, the Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2013-2017 will include details about visitor arrivals to choose PATA member economies from key source markets, visitor expenditures in PATA member economies, and visitor departures of member economies.
The annual edition of the forecasts may even feature reports analysing the forecasts and their implications, bearing in mind particular trends for certain regions.
Though it’s clear that demand for inbound and outbound travel in Asia Pacific is growing, it’s the details shown by forecasts of travel demand with a purpose to guide the visitor economy within the measurement of tourist arrivals and expenditure.
Forecasts may help justify decision-making on the subject of planning investments in visitor infrastructure, human resource management, marketing resource allocation decisions and new product development.
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